Neighbours Keep Out

Iraq's interim Governing Council is standing firm against admitting troops from Turkey or any other neighbouring country. But as attacks on America's troops continue, to whom can it turn for help in pacifying Iraq?

THE American and British troops in Iraq could do with some help as they struggle to improve security, six months after toppling Saddam Hussein's regime. Over the weekend, the latest in a string of suicide bombings killed six Iraqis outside a hotel used by American officials in Baghdad, and the Iraqi oil minister survived an assassination attempt. On Monday October 13th, two American soldiers were killed in separate attacks--bringing to 97 the number killed since early May, when President George Bush declared that "major combat" was supposedly over. However, the chances of bringing in reinforcements from other countries worsened further on Monday, when Iraq's Governing Council--an interim group appointed by America to run some of Iraq's affairs until a new government is elected--reaffirmed its opposition to admitting troops from Turkey.

The Turkish government's proposal to send perhaps 10,000 troops is the only firm and substantial offer of help the American-led occupying forces have had. But many Iraqis are appalled at the idea: for centuries, Iraq was part of the Turkish-run Ottoman empire and the idea of being reoccupied, even temporarily, by the former colonial ruler has not gone down well. In a possible expression of this disquiet, a suicide bomber blew himself up, injuring ten people, outside the Turkish embassy in Baghdad on Tuesday.

Last week, American pressure dissuaded the Governing Council from issuing a formal rejection of the Turkish troops; on Monday, though, its foreign minister, Hoshyar Zebari, said at a summit of Islamic countries in Malaysia that the council was opposed to the presence of forces from any of Iraq's neighbouring countries. He won support from King Abdullah of Jordan--normally an ally of America's--who told the summit: "No border country should play an active role because all have an agenda."

Malaysia, which is hosting the summit of the 57-nation Organisation of the Islamic Conference (OIC) and will chair the organisation for the next three years, argued that only fellow Muslim nations should have troops in Iraq and that they should operate under the United Nations' control. However, Mr Zebari said that, from his initial contacts with the Muslim countries, he detected no desire by any of them to contribute troops. Pakistan and Bangladesh--two Muslim states on whom America had pinned some hopes--have indicated that they might send troops, but only if they had either a UN mandate or a formal request from Iraq. Pakistan's foreign minister, Khursheed Mehmood Kasuri, criticised Malaysia's call, in effect, for American troops to withdraw, calling it "unrealistic".

Some compromise on the deployment of Turkish troops is still possible: interviewed in ASHARQ AL-AWSAT, a London-based Arab newspaper, Mr Zebari said it might be possible if the Turks' supply lines were "under the control of coalition and local or Kurdish forces". However, the chances of agreement were not helped by bellicose comments on Monday from one of Turkey's senior generals, Ilker Basbug, who said any attack on Turkish peacekeeping troops by Iraqi Kurds would meet with the "necessary response".

In exchange for its offer of troops, Turkey is demanding that America take action against the 5,000 Turkish Kurd guerrillas who are hiding out among their fellow Kurds in northern Iraq. Turkey already has several thousand troops in northern Iraq, keeping an eye on the militants, who recently broke off a four-year ceasefire after rejecting the Turkish government's offer of a partial amnesty. Surprisingly, Osman Ocalan, the commander of the Turkish Kurd fighters in Iraq, has spoken in favour of Turkey sending peacekeeping troops--as long as they go to the south of Iraq and keep well clear of the Kurds. Turkey is trying to convince America to let it station its peacekeepers at Salahaddin, between Baghdad and the Kurdish north, or in the west of the country.

Besides the threat from cross-border raids by Turkish Kurd guerrillas based in Iraq, the Turks fear that the Kurds in the autonomous enclave in northern Iraq might take advantage of Iraq's chaotic situation and declare an independent Kurdistan, which would then cast covetous eyes on Turkey's sizeable Kurdish areas (see map above).

If no agreement can be reached on admitting Turkish peacekeepers, America and its coalition allies will be in a fix. The 131,000 American and 11,000 British troops in Iraq have so far proved insufficient to stop the guerrilla attacks by pro-Saddam loyalists. Some American soldiers have openly expressed their disquiet at how long they have been posted in Iraq and their keen desire to get home to their families. America's best hope of getting troop reinforcements, and financial aid towards the enormous cost of rebuilding Iraq, lies in getting a new resolution passed at the UN Security Council. On Monday, America circulated a new draft resolution, which gives the Iraqi Governing Council until December 15th to publish a timetable for the transfer of power and the holding of elections. However, the draft neither sets a firm deadline for the handover, nor does it substantially strengthen the UN's role--both key demands of France, Russia and Germany, among others.

The struggle to get a new UN resolution is not the only one that Mr Bush is facing: this week, both houses of America's Congress are expected to debate his request for $87 billion of extra spending on Iraq and Afghanistan. Most of this is military spending but $20 billion of it is for civil reconstruction. Even some of Mr Bush's fellow Republicans are questioning the size of his civil-aid package. He seems likely to win Congress's approval in the end, though perhaps by a narrow margin. Unless the new UN resolution passes, Mr Bush may not have much luck in getting contributions from other countries at next week's international conference of donors. The European Union's members agreed on Monday to make a modest contribution of EURO200m ($235m) for the current financial year--a drop in the ocean compared with the estimated $35.6 billion that is needed, over the next four years, to revive Iraq's ravaged economy.

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	14.10.2003 \| The Economist Neighbours Keep Out Iraq's interim Governing Council is standing firm against admitting troops from Turkey or any other neighbouring country. But as attacks on America's troops continue, to whom can it turn for help in pacifying Iraq? THE American and British troops in Iraq could do with some help as they struggle to improve security, six months after toppling Saddam Hussein's regime. Over the weekend, the latest in a string of suicide bombings killed six Iraqis outside a hotel used by American officials in Baghdad, and the Iraqi oil minister survived an assassination attempt. On Monday October 13th, two American soldiers were killed in separate attacks--bringing to 97 the number killed since early May, when President George Bush declared that "major combat" was supposedly over. However, the chances of bringing in reinforcements from other countries worsened further on Monday, when Iraq's Governing Council--an interim group appointed by America to run some of Iraq's affairs until a new government is elected--reaffirmed its opposition to admitting troops from Turkey. The Turkish government's proposal to send perhaps 10,000 troops is the only firm and substantial offer of help the American-led occupying forces have had. But many Iraqis are appalled at the idea: for centuries, Iraq was part of the Turkish-run Ottoman empire and the idea of being reoccupied, even temporarily, by the former colonial ruler has not gone down well. In a possible expression of this disquiet, a suicide bomber blew himself up, injuring ten people, outside the Turkish embassy in Baghdad on Tuesday. Last week, American pressure dissuaded the Governing Council from issuing a formal rejection of the Turkish troops; on Monday, though, its foreign minister, Hoshyar Zebari, said at a summit of Islamic countries in Malaysia that the council was opposed to the presence of forces from any of Iraq's neighbouring countries. He won support from King Abdullah of Jordan--normally an ally of America's--who told the summit: "No border country should play an active role because all have an agenda." Malaysia, which is hosting the summit of the 57-nation Organisation of the Islamic Conference (OIC) and will chair the organisation for the next three years, argued that only fellow Muslim nations should have troops in Iraq and that they should operate under the United Nations' control. However, Mr Zebari said that, from his initial contacts with the Muslim countries, he detected no desire by any of them to contribute troops. Pakistan and Bangladesh--two Muslim states on whom America had pinned some hopes--have indicated that they might send troops, but only if they had either a UN mandate or a formal request from Iraq. Pakistan's foreign minister, Khursheed Mehmood Kasuri, criticised Malaysia's call, in effect, for American troops to withdraw, calling it "unrealistic". Some compromise on the deployment of Turkish troops is still possible: interviewed in ASHARQ AL-AWSAT, a London-based Arab newspaper, Mr Zebari said it might be possible if the Turks' supply lines were "under the control of coalition and local or Kurdish forces". However, the chances of agreement were not helped by bellicose comments on Monday from one of Turkey's senior generals, Ilker Basbug, who said any attack on Turkish peacekeeping troops by Iraqi Kurds would meet with the "necessary response". In exchange for its offer of troops, Turkey is demanding that America take action against the 5,000 Turkish Kurd guerrillas who are hiding out among their fellow Kurds in northern Iraq. Turkey already has several thousand troops in northern Iraq, keeping an eye on the militants, who recently broke off a four-year ceasefire after rejecting the Turkish government's offer of a partial amnesty. Surprisingly, Osman Ocalan, the commander of the Turkish Kurd fighters in Iraq, has spoken in favour of Turkey sending peacekeeping troops--as long as they go to the south of Iraq and keep well clear of the Kurds. Turkey is trying to convince America to let it station its peacekeepers at Salahaddin, between Baghdad and the Kurdish north, or in the west of the country. Besides the threat from cross-border raids by Turkish Kurd guerrillas based in Iraq, the Turks fear that the Kurds in the autonomous enclave in northern Iraq might take advantage of Iraq's chaotic situation and declare an independent Kurdistan, which would then cast covetous eyes on Turkey's sizeable Kurdish areas (see map above). If no agreement can be reached on admitting Turkish peacekeepers, America and its coalition allies will be in a fix. The 131,000 American and 11,000 British troops in Iraq have so far proved insufficient to stop the guerrilla attacks by pro-Saddam loyalists. Some American soldiers have openly expressed their disquiet at how long they have been posted in Iraq and their keen desire to get home to their families. America's best hope of getting troop reinforcements, and financial aid towards the enormous cost of rebuilding Iraq, lies in getting a new resolution passed at the UN Security Council. On Monday, America circulated a new draft resolution, which gives the Iraqi Governing Council until December 15th to publish a timetable for the transfer of power and the holding of elections. However, the draft neither sets a firm deadline for the handover, nor does it substantially strengthen the UN's role--both key demands of France, Russia and Germany, among others. The struggle to get a new UN resolution is not the only one that Mr Bush is facing: this week, both houses of America's Congress are expected to debate his request for $87 billion of extra spending on Iraq and Afghanistan. Most of this is military spending but $20 billion of it is for civil reconstruction. Even some of Mr Bush's fellow Republicans are questioning the size of his civil-aid package. He seems likely to win Congress's approval in the end, though perhaps by a narrow margin. Unless the new UN resolution passes, Mr Bush may not have much luck in getting contributions from other countries at next week's international conference of donors. The European Union's members agreed on Monday to make a modest contribution of EURO200m ($235m) for the current financial year--a drop in the ocean compared with the estimated $35.6 billion that is needed, over the next four years, to revive Iraq's ravaged economy. © 2003 The Economist Newspaper Group Limited WADI e.V. \| tel.: (+49) 069-57002440 \| fax (+49) 069-57002444 http://www.wadinet.de \| e-mail: