Iraq after the Surge

INTERNATIONAL CRISIS GROUP
NEW REPORT

Iraq after the Surge

Baghdad/Istanbul/Damascus/Brussels, 30 April 2008: The U.S. military surge contributed to a significant reduction in violence but has reached the limit of what it can achieve. Without fundamental political changes in Iraq, success will remain fragile and dangerously reversible.

Iraq after the Surge,* a set of two companion reports from the International Crisis Group, examines the security and political aspects of the surge. The New Sunni Landscape, uniquely based on extensive interviews with insurgents, describes the sweeping changes affecting Sunni tribes, al-Qaeda in Iraq and the insurgency. The Need for a New Political Strategy analyses reasons for the current deadlock and suggests a way forward. Both point to the importance of devising a different approach that focuses on pressuring the Iraqi government to agree to political compromise, engaging in negotiations with a fuller range of Iraqi actors, including still-active insurgents, and altering the regional climate.

The Sunni insurgency has been seriously weakened. Previously marginalised Sunni tribes found in the U.S. a new patron and turned against al-Qaeda in Iraq. Increasingly divided and with several important groups co-opted by the U.S., the armed movements are a shadow of their former selves. As for al-Qaeda in Iraq, it appears in disarray, a victim of U.S. attacks but also of its own brutal excesses. Yet these trends are not necessarily permanent and hardly equate with durable Sunni Arab acceptance of the political process. Instead, U.S. policy is bolstering a set of local actors operating beyond the states realm or the rule of law and who impose their authority by force of arms.

None of this points to progress toward a fully inclusive political process, says Peter Harling, Crisis Groups Iraq, Syria and Lebanon Project Director. The U.S. now seems intent on militarily defeating insurgents who, although they express deep misgivings about the current political system, are eager for genuine negotiations.

Lack of progress on the political front shows that the current piecemeal approach should be replaced with efforts to bring about a broad agreement. The issues at the heart of the political struggle cannot be solved individually or sequentially and the current governing structure does not want, nor is able, to take advantage of the surge to produce agreement on fundamentals, says Joost Hiltermann, Crisis Groups Middle East and North Africa Deputy Program Director. A dramatic departure from the current approach is required.

The only lasting solution lies in creating non-sectarian, impartial and functional state institutions. To this end, the U.S. government must cease unconditional military support to the Iraqi government and, instead, adjust such support by assessing the behaviour of Iraqi military bodies. Along with the United Nations, the U.S. should press for, and assist the Iraqi government in organising, free, fair, inclusive and safe provincial council elections by 1 October 2008. It should insist on a broader political process aimed at a new national compact. And it should engage in genuine regional diplomacy, including with Iran and Syria, with a view to defusing regional tensions and agreeing on red lines regarding policy toward Iraq.

For years, the U.S. pursued a lofty strategy the spread of democracy; Iraq as a regional model detached from any realistic tactics, says Robert Malley, Crisis Groups Middle East and North Africa Program Director. And yet, with Washington having finally adopted a set of smart, pragmatic tactics, the risk today is that the U.S. finds itself devoid of any overarching strategy.

Contacts: Andrew Stroehlein (Brussels) +32 (0) 2 541 1635 Kimberly Abbott (Washington) +1 202 785 1601 To contact Crisis Group media please click here
*Read the full Crisis Group report on our website: http://www.crisisgroup.org

The International Crisis Group (Crisis Group) is an independent, non-profit, non-governmental organisation covering some 60 crisis-affected countries and territories across four continents, working through field-based analysis and high-level advocacy to prevent and resolve deadly conflict.

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	International Crisis Group \| April 2008 INTERNATIONAL CRISIS GROUP NEW REPORT Iraq after the Surge Baghdad/Istanbul/Damascus/Brussels, 30 April 2008: The U.S. military surge contributed to a significant reduction in violence but has reached the limit of what it can achieve. Without fundamental political changes in Iraq, success will remain fragile and dangerously reversible. Iraq after the Surge,* a set of two companion reports from the International Crisis Group, examines the security and political aspects of the surge. The New Sunni Landscape, uniquely based on extensive interviews with insurgents, describes the sweeping changes affecting Sunni tribes, al-Qaeda in Iraq and the insurgency. The Need for a New Political Strategy analyses reasons for the current deadlock and suggests a way forward. Both point to the importance of devising a different approach that focuses on pressuring the Iraqi government to agree to political compromise, engaging in negotiations with a fuller range of Iraqi actors, including still-active insurgents, and altering the regional climate. The Sunni insurgency has been seriously weakened. Previously marginalised Sunni tribes found in the U.S. a new patron and turned against al-Qaeda in Iraq. Increasingly divided and with several important groups co-opted by the U.S., the armed movements are a shadow of their former selves. As for al-Qaeda in Iraq, it appears in disarray, a victim of U.S. attacks but also of its own brutal excesses. Yet these trends are not necessarily permanent and hardly equate with durable Sunni Arab acceptance of the political process. Instead, U.S. policy is bolstering a set of local actors operating beyond the states realm or the rule of law and who impose their authority by force of arms. None of this points to progress toward a fully inclusive political process, says Peter Harling, Crisis Groups Iraq, Syria and Lebanon Project Director. The U.S. now seems intent on militarily defeating insurgents who, although they express deep misgivings about the current political system, are eager for genuine negotiations. Lack of progress on the political front shows that the current piecemeal approach should be replaced with efforts to bring about a broad agreement. The issues at the heart of the political struggle cannot be solved individually or sequentially and the current governing structure does not want, nor is able, to take advantage of the surge to produce agreement on fundamentals, says Joost Hiltermann, Crisis Groups Middle East and North Africa Deputy Program Director. A dramatic departure from the current approach is required. The only lasting solution lies in creating non-sectarian, impartial and functional state institutions. To this end, the U.S. government must cease unconditional military support to the Iraqi government and, instead, adjust such support by assessing the behaviour of Iraqi military bodies. Along with the United Nations, the U.S. should press for, and assist the Iraqi government in organising, free, fair, inclusive and safe provincial council elections by 1 October 2008. It should insist on a broader political process aimed at a new national compact. And it should engage in genuine regional diplomacy, including with Iran and Syria, with a view to defusing regional tensions and agreeing on red lines regarding policy toward Iraq. For years, the U.S. pursued a lofty strategy the spread of democracy; Iraq as a regional model detached from any realistic tactics, says Robert Malley, Crisis Groups Middle East and North Africa Program Director. And yet, with Washington having finally adopted a set of smart, pragmatic tactics, the risk today is that the U.S. finds itself devoid of any overarching strategy. Contacts: Andrew Stroehlein (Brussels) +32 (0) 2 541 1635 Kimberly Abbott (Washington) +1 202 785 1601 To contact Crisis Group media please click here *Read the full Crisis Group report on our website: http://www.crisisgroup.org The International Crisis Group (Crisis Group) is an independent, non-profit, non-governmental organisation covering some 60 crisis-affected countries and territories across four continents, working through field-based analysis and high-level advocacy to prevent and resolve deadly conflict. WADI e.V. \| tel.: (+49) 069-57002440 \| fax (+49) 069-57002444 http://www.wadinet.de \| e-mail:

INTERNATIONAL CRISIS GROUP NEW REPORT

Iraq after the Surge

INTERNATIONAL CRISIS GROUP
NEW REPORT