Outcome of a bad deal

14. Juli 2015, von Administrator

The lifting of restrictions ensures that Iran will be no further from achieving nuclear weapons status than it is today. Nothing has been rolled back. None of the initial Western demands, whether regarding enrichment, the number of centrifuges, the extent of inspections, or the timetable for lifting sanctions have been met. Iran will now have access to the latest technology, to international trade, and, most important, to billions of dollars. Estimates of Tehran’s financial windfall range as high as $150 billion. Even if the actual figures are no more than $50 billion, that sum is enough for Iran both to modernize its infrastructure and double, perhaps triple its financial support for terrorist activities, which currently is estimated to cost the Islamic Republic less than ten billions dollars. The prospects for a peaceful outcome in Syria, or Yemen have diminished markedly. Hezbollah’s fortunes have skyrocketed. And the threat to Bahrain and Saudi Arabia’s Eastern Province has become far more ominous.

What of Israel and the Sunni Arab states? The former has both the defensive weapons and the offensive power to deter Iran. Still, whether it will attack some or all of Iran’s sites remains an open question. What is far less doubtful is that several of the larger Sunni states — Saudi Arabia, the United Arab Emirates, Egypt, and Turkey — will probably go nuclear. The Middle East has just become far more dangerous than it was a day ago. And the Obama administration has no one to blame but itself.


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