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Hollow Victory, the impending chaos and beyond: planning for crisis


KurdishMedia.com - By Dr Fereydun Hilmi 03 February 2002

What the US has managed to do so far in its war against the Afghan Taliban is to multiply the number of its enemies by ten fold for a hollow victory over bearded Islamic fanatics with rather primitive weapons and even more basic intelligence. They have by no means managed to dent international terrorism let alone eradicate it.

At home, they have failed to trace those who killed several US citizens using home-grown Anthrax spores. Fear of flying has not and will not subside for a hundred years. Arab “self-sacrifices” in the “holy” lands have increased and the peoples of the Arab and Islamic states are much more emotionally charged against them. Thus I do not think that the US has in anyway balanced the “terror” books. They have managed to convey the impression that their behaviour is normal and can be copied by anyone who gets Western blessing and anyone else who calculate they could get away with it.

So, when the mighty US clumsily fights wars against weak and rather helpless nations they must bear in mind that they will not get away with it when fighting a more determined foe with better weapons and stronger will.

Bush’s threats against Iraq, Iran and North Korea are primarily a smoke screen to prepare the international public opinion for US intentions to attempt an Afghanistan-style coup in Iraq because it is inconceivable that the Americans would risk involvement in either Iran or North Korea. They are, however, no Afghanistan. Iran in particular would be more than difficult to tackle because of the volatility of its surrounding areas and the Middle East. Iran has been much more supportive of the Palestinians than the Palestinians themselves and certainly much more than the General Arab ruling juntas. They have chosen the Arab camp strategically since the death of the Shah who had until then steered Iran with western wind in his country’s sales. Luckily for the Kurds now Turkey, Iraq and Persia are at loggerheads over everything not least the question of who and by what proportion would share Kurdish water.

North Korea is even more unlikely to be attacked since there is no evidence at all of any links with any form of terrorism or international terror groups. The intended target of the Bush threats is therefore Iraq alone. The well-known backer of Islamic and Jihad movements in Lebanon and Israel is Syria after Iran but no threats have been issued against Syria and that must have its own significance. It may be that Syria is needed to be on America’s side when the blow comes or at least in a passive or neutral state. Now that Afghanistan has become an American puppet, there is hardly any mention of the Taliban Leader, Sheikh Omar who seems to have been swallowed up by the dust from the bombing by the American B52 planes. As for the Al-Qaeeda leader Bin Laden, he is nowhere to be found. The tall bearded Saudi “Prophet” of western doom has completely disappeared which makes one wonder if he really ever existed. Perhaps he was an advanced form of hologram beamed down on Afghanistan by US Satellites Or, perhaps he was another MGM Animation that occupied space on Video films only or a CIA or NASA experiment which went completely wrong.

But although Iraq has engaged in many internal and external wars and is known as a oppressive dictatorial and aggressive country, much more so, in fact than Afghanistan, the same people who led the Arab forces against it, Egypt and the few Arab states who did fight alongside the Allied forces in the Gulf war, are today dead against attacking it or changing the face of its regime in anyway. Egypt which has in the past sold Palestine not only by making peace with Israel and establishing diplomatic and trade relations with it but also by (jointly with Jordan) rendering the territories lost in 1967 to it for Billions of US Dollars which they have been receiving since Camp David. As a result of that, they prosper and develop, from receiving great sums of money from the West and in particular from the US for just that sort of role which benefits her and her financial backers against her own brethren and Arab nation. Meanwhile, Palestine is gradually being reduced to rubble and its people are left to defend themselves with stones, encouraged and egged on by the Arabs and in particular Egypt, Jordan and Syria.

The Saudis and Gulf states too are happy for Egypt to be their diplomatic face who does all the dirty work and have let it dominate and manipulate the Arab League now being run by none other than the previous Egyptian Foreign Minister. Yes, Amr Musa, the very man who only a few months ago was castigating the west for its previous history of slavery and Israel’s “Racist” attitudes is today engaged in defending the Iraqi Regime, the “epitome of Liberal and Democratic values” and the pillar of “racial harmony and equality of all creeds and ethnic communities”

And, if Iraq puts its trust in him and his phoney missions and shuttle diplomacy between Baghdad and Kuwait then I think they are even more naive than they proved to be when they interpreted April Gilespie’s non-committal words in July 1990 to mean they could invade Kuwait anytime they wished.

A Brewing Tornado

What is in store for Iraq may be a terrible but perhaps fitting end for Ba’athism and Saddam’s dynasty. However, I feel that this could easily lead to Chaos for the Iraqi peoples as a whole. Naturally I feel for them and wish them no harm if they are innocent of propping up such rulers and masters. But, I do not feel sympathy for anyone who has supported or continues to support them especially after the revelations about their evil rule and cruel and inhumane methods, at least since the Gulf war.

My greatest concern of course is for my own nation, the Kurds who have been receiving the most terrible treatment and fascist policies at the hands of all four artificially put-together States since the end of the First World War and at the hands of the Ottomans, the Arabs and Persians before them.

The Chaos is coming towards Kurdistan like a Tornado which has been brewing in the air gathering momentum and energy. My people must be vigilant. There is no time for dithering and hesitation. All the nation must work to cater for its devastating effect and possible aftershocks. We have analysed and contemplated our plight and our options long enough and we now must act. But, what can we do?

For a start we need to be very cautious in entering any conflict which could bring disaster and devastation to our people. All indications are the American move(s) against Saddam will start from Kurdistan. But while the US soldiers will probably be thoroughly protected against Chemical and Biological attack and armed to the teeth our average person in the street will not be. During the Gulf war it was reported and people saw on TV the gasmasks distributed among the people of Israel. The US immediately shipped Patriot missiles to counter the Iraqi Skud missiles and supplied the State of Israel with sophisticated weapons despite the fact that they already had a great arsenal of their own, including nuclear weapons with their state-of-the-art delivery vehicles. Our leaders should be no less demanding of the US for the best possible defensive weapons, proper medical help with the appropriate expertise in countering chemical and biological weapons.

On the other hand the Kurdish nation must be put through a civil defence programme and great attention should be paid to identifying known and suspect agents of the State of Iraq, including their sleepers and other operatives who could cause havoc in Kurdistan should the Iraqi regime decide to do so in desperation.

I further suggest the following:

Relevant Policies are Identifiable

- We must ask that a clear written guarantee be given that Kurdistan will never be made subservient to the Iraqis again and that the democratic institutions which we have fought for, for so long, be protected from any and all those who cannot tolerate the Kurds to exercise and practice their right to Self-determination and from any possible war damage.

- Ask for our leaders be placed in the picture by the Western governments and UN organisation on a full time basis. This means that as major players our leaders must be fully informed and consulted on every move likely to be made in our areas.

- Kurdish Government Representatives must be allowed to execute proper representation functions and Western States such as Britain and the US should have similar if not higher ranked offices in Kurdistan. Kurds should be allowed to apply for entry visas into western countries not only because that is a right denied them for no real reason other than the fact that the International Community stubbornly and stupidly considers the victims of Iraqi racist and oppressive atrocities to be part and parcel of those atrocities themselves. By doing so the UN and its most vociferous supporters, namely the big five, are denying basic human rights to the Kurds and forcing them to adopt an illegal and dangerous rout to travel outside their country or to enter Europe. The banning of visas to Kurds in this way creates a feeling among them that they are missing out on a great deal. Unlike the Iraqi Arabs or the citizens of any other state or nation, who can easily go and live in anyone of 22 Arab countries, the Kurds can only head towards mainland Europe using dangerous and illegal means. As we also know the very banning of a necessity of life makes it the most sought after item to have. The Western countries would be doing themselves a great deal of good by normalising the business of visa processing for Kurds. When the only way to enter Europe for any reason, be it education, plain visit, tourism or health matters is to sell all your possessions and follow an unscrupulous and unpredictable smuggler across dangerous and inhospitable territories, then that becomes the way which a large number of people have to go. Something which normally lasts a few months for people who are allowed to enter into a country legally becomes a permanent act.

- The Ministers for Humanitarian affairs, and Human Rights should hammer this point home again and again especially with those in the European Foreign Ministries which call them to complain about the lage number of Asylum seekers. In doing so they can depend on the legally accepted fact that the Kurds are oppressed (see all the resolutions which are to do with them and their treatment at the hands of the Iraqis). The UN and the Big Five have already passed these resolutions and have seen fit to separate the Three Northern Governorates in such a way that the UN and not Baghdad is responsible for their welfare. This clear and unequivocal assertion is there for all to see. It is quite clear then that the Kurds are in no way implicated in whatever the Iraqis have and are doing. Therefore, the restrictions imposed on the Kurds whatever they may be; a nation, a group a community or a simple minority is totally illegal, against the UN charter, the SCR 661, 688, 986 and the MOU as well as flying completely in the face all the Western assurances of respect of the Law and International Peace and Security.

- Quite obviously too is the fact that denying the Kurds these rights is not of the doing of Saddam or his Regime at this present juncture but at the hands of the very people who claim to be blockading Saddam for the past ten years precisely as a result of his past violations of those rights and his oppression of the same people. This means that at a time when Saddam has left most of Kurdistan and the Kurds wish to exercise their normal basic and human rights, the West has been denying his victims free travel, adequate health care, the prospects of educational and informative trips, normal sporting and social ties with the outside world, regular international male, regular and useful tracde and commercial links and visits by the sick to proper medical care centres which they have been denied by their oppressors and now by their “rescuers” and “protectors”.

- The Kurdish leaders must take action to redress these failures and obvious violations of human rights and should not simply be afraid of offending those claiming to be their protectors.

- Because I have not encountered anyone in Kurdistan capable of understanding and then acting on these matters I have suggested to put these things in the hands of a European or American Legal team who will be able to coolly get into the nuts and bolts of International Law and get positive results without ever offending our supporters or backers.

- The Kurds have a great ammunition in the increasingly inadequate Charter and its sister Conventions, SCRs and so on and as I said in a previous article they stink but they should be made to stink in our enemies faces and they can be made to do so.

But Chaos could take different shapes in Kurdistan. It could come in the shape of a flood of Iraqis and Kurds livening in Baghdad and Southern Iraq. The KRG must ask the UN to provide extra supplies of food and other necessary items. The KRG should ask for sophisticated anti-aircraft and ant-tank weapons to defend themselves against any possible attacks from an angry and wounded regime. They should ask for the provision of medical experts and medication to cope with the worst possible scenarios and they must get the people to take all precautions for any eventuality.

Sitting on our backsides makes us sitting ducks which will be blown away when the whirlwind arrives.


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